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How to Foresee Crisis but not Be False Prophete

Prior to our country has stepped to the capitalist path of development I has never known what economic cycles and crises are . Scientists studied Western theories and practices of the smoothing of cyclical waves, including the reduction of the key rate and interest rates on loans during the crisis period. However, when the 2000's these waves  "covered" Russia as well, it was found that in economic policy decisions that are made, sometimes far from those in which overseas stimulated transition from recession to revival and growth. requested clarification from the Director - supervisor of the Russian-Italian RANHiGS center, doctor of economic sciences, professor Mamikon Hayrapetyan.

Mamikon Hayrapetyan

Mamikon Sergeevich, studies of economic cycles and crises were held abroad since time they first appeared, even the classics of Marxism wrote on this subject. And what is the feature of such studies in the XX and XXI century?

- Formation of the modern world economic center involving US dominant in the XX century was due to their expansion and the creation of multinational companies global infrastructure, a key element of which was the creation in 1913 of the Federal Reserve System (FRS). Maintaining this status required for system studies of cyclic processes, taking them into account in the economic policy, aimed at a global scientific and technical leadership. In 1920, the founder of the Harvard School of Economics and cyclical trends institutionalism Wesley Mitchell founded and headed the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), in which the first forecasts of quantitative growth were made and tools were created, having initiated applied research of cyclical fluctuations. NBER funded by the state and private corporations work closely with representatives of the leading universities and schools in the US economic and business circles.

Over time, the NBER has become one of the most influential centers of world economic thought and policy. It is attended by the Nobel Prize winners in economics, Economic Advisors Council under the President of the United States, which determine the main directions of American economic policy of the USA and many other countries, mainly - through monetary and fiscal (debt) policy. This globally oriented policy affects the economy of Russia often by disorientation of vision of "view of the world." Years ago committed mismanagement began to replicate in Russia, increasing the loss not only in economy but also in the socio-political sphere.

Does this mean that there is a need for cyclical studies in Russia?

- Of course. One of the reasons for the fact that the need for such research was unrealized is the lack of consistently reproducible information material for analysis and forecasting of cyclic and non-cyclic fluctuations (long-term statistical series, tuned leading, coincident and lagging indicators, independent monitoring). Without this it is impossible to form any adequate anti-crisis policy, any economic development strategy.

It is necessary to take into account the "paradigm gap" - the Russian and the world economy went in different trends after 2012, when all came out of the 2008-2009 crisis.

In 2013-2015 Russia's economy went into recession (sectoral Western sanctions have intensified the negative trend), and the continued growth whereas in the global economy the growth continued, albeit low.

Therefore, despite all the differences in the understanding of the causes and characteristics of cyclic processes in the world and Russian economy, in these circumstances we need a wide-ranging debate on these issues. We must develop a common approach that would be reflected in the Strategy of socio-economic development of Russia until 2030. Without its development, the lag between the Russian economy and the global trends (primarily in the field of scientific and technological development and human capital) will intensify significantly, and possibly irrevocably.

What should the Strategy 2030 be based on?

- It should be based on the systemic and comprehensive forecasts as acceptable for Russia economic growth rate (5-6% per year) depends primarily on the adequacy of economic policy built on reasonably accurate estimates and projections of the world economy. The world experience of recent years including Russian one, has shown the complexity of predicting the start and end of the crisis in the economy and their breakpoints.

During the crisis of 2008-2009 financial and economic departments of Russia - Ministry of Economic Development and Finance and the Bank of Russia repeatedly (largely at random, without any scientific justification) changed their forecasts in one direction or another. And from 2014-2015, they started to practice a short-range mode and actually lost landmarks of the world and Russian economy in relation to the ruble exchange rate, prices of major export commodities (oil, gas, metals), capital export volumes, inflation, income and expenses of the state. This is due to the fact that the valuesof these parameters and their dynamics are generally not under internal control but formed mainly at international level. Meanwhile, Russia is not represented at this level sufficiently.

Claiming to be one of the world centers of economy and politics, Russia must have a competitive analogue of the world centers for cyclical fluctuations research, primarily the NBER.

You mean the creation of an institution? What this will be doing?

- Exactly. This institute or center should be charged with rating functions in the field of dating crises and lift-ups, turning points of oscillations and developing anti-crisis policy, which provides a transition to a new economic paradigm, rapprochement with the global trends.

Creating this will help to avoid many errors in the management and losses, especially if the periodic economic crises, instability in the world and Russian economy persist.

It is also clear that the crisis processes in the Russian economy of the last two-three years, and the western sector sanctions have led to an acute need to develop the domestic market, to mobiliz domestic resources, including the reserve ones, and sources of investment and demand. One of the key actors and drivers of these processes should be small and medium businesses as the most important indicator "aggregate economic activity and passivity" and trending fractures in the dynamics of economic cycles.

The most important task of the center - the systematization and updating studies of economic cycles and crises in Russia, which are conducted by individual scientists and scientific organizations. The most convenient platform for this, I believe is RANHiGS as a scientific and educational structure of the President of the Russian Federation, which is conducting special training of civilian employees servants, especially of senior and middle management level.


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